Before you get too deep into the breakdown you’re about to receive, the information in this article generally cuts across all major sporting events well. However, with the MLB season in full swing, there is no better time than the present to illustrate a point.
Common among experienced investors, but often ignored by newbies, is the fact that market influence plays a big, if not the biggest role in creating lines. Today, the presence of the media is stronger than ever. With Glogs, Blogs, commentary streaming and more from professional newscasters and amateur sportswriters alike, there’s a wealth of information at your fingertips.
While knowledge of the game, inside information, and all the latest stats and trends are helpful when it comes to nagging your next sports investment, no one compares to understanding the market behind every investment possibility. In fact, if you only have time to dig into one area, are new and don’t know where to start, or have compiled all your data and need a tiebreaker, understanding media markets and the subsequent frenzy they produce is key to profiting from them. sports events.
As an example of this, we’ll take 2 MLB games, both from June 06, 2007. The first is Florida Marlins (+129) @ Atlanta Braves (-139). Game two is Chicago Cubs (+101) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-111). These lines were taken directly from Bodog and Sportsbook, 2 of the largest sportsbooks available online in the US.
Let’s start with the first game. The Marlins are considered a lower-income team than the Braves, we all know that. Plus, the average 9/10 fans will tell you that the Braves are the perennial favorites on any given night. They often live off the fat of their ’90s dominance and continued strong play into this decade. However, in the last 10 years the Marlins have won 2 world series compared to the Brave 0. But fan base and history aside, let’s focus on this year for a moment. At the time of writing this article, only a 4-game difference separated the 2 teams. Looking down the line though, the Braves are a clear favorite. Why is that? Is it because Florida has a better road record than Atlanta’s home record? Obviously not. Is it because Florida was on a longer winning streak at the time? Obviously not. Is it because Florida had the advantage in speed, power and overall starting pitching for the team? Obviously not.
The Marlins were the underdogs due to the media surrounding both teams. How many powerful stories do you read on Sportsline, ESPN or MLB about the Marlins? How many times do you read about the fact that, despite the Amazing Braves pedigree, the Marlins have not only won 2 more championships in the last 10 years, but even as recently as last year, young team and all, they were only 1 game? behind the Braves.
This is not a flash in the pan people. The Marlins have consistently outplayed the Braves when and where it matters for 10 years. And from a bettor’s perspective, they’ve won more underdogs for investors than the Braves by a landslide. Why is that? It has little to do with talent, veins, or pride. It has to do with the public perception created by the media.
Almost everyone with cable or satellite television can watch the Braves on television. It has been that way for almost 20 years. But the Marlins? Outside of a Florida market, they have little game. The media shape these lines.
But let’s go a step further. You may be thinking that the lines are not ‘so’ different. Well, at some sportsbooks, the Braves were favored with a clip of (-145), and the biggest loser line for the Marlins was (+129). That’s a big difference for a team that, in addition to all the reasons listed above, has also beaten the money line on a 12-8 pace over the Braves. Those 4 games may only seem like a narrow margin, but you’re talking underdog lines of +225, +200, +119, +104, and more! Seeing as 2 of those lines are over 200, the profit generated by those 4 extra wins is huge.
So if the Marlins won 2 world series over the Braves 0 in the last 10 years, they were only 1 game behind the Braves last year, only 4 games behind this year with better starting body, speed and team power, and They were 12-8 against the Braves in 2006-2007 combined with almost every win by an underdog, why the long lineup? Because no one ever bets on the Marlins. They are a small market team. They are not on TV almost every day. They’re not the sexy team internet writers talk about. They don’t get a single weekend warrior bet out of South Florida. The Braves are a media juggernaut, and as such, that information can turn a profit.
Now, arming yourself with the above knowledge is only half of understanding the influence of the media on the betting markets. Let’s take a look at the other game described above, the Chicago Cubs vs. the Milwaukee Brewers.
This game was not chosen by accident. The Cubs have the distinction of being the other team in the media market also televised on cable almost every day. Any baseball fan under the age of 35 grew up watching the Cubs or Braves on television. However, while the Braves benefit from a positive media image (and, as described above, an overly inflated media image), the Cubs receive the opposite effect.
How many of you have heard the Cubs referred to as the lovable underdogs? Just about anyone who is a superficial fan of baseball or even knows someone who is a fan probably raised their hand. We all know it’s been forever since the Cubs have won a World Series. We all laugh at his ineptitude from injuries, managerial errors and even recently, the fistfights between fellow drummers. The bottom line is that the Cubs are available to us every day like MLB’s version of the Jerry Springer Show. We can watch them implode day after day, year after year. Or at least, that’s what the media shows us.
Fights happen in Major League clubhouses often, but rarely, if ever, make it to the media at smaller market teams. Last year, Detroit had a series of blunders in last year’s World Series, baseball’s biggest arena in the world, yet fewer Tigers jerseys are sold than Cubs, so the story gets buried. under the mire of the media.
In the Cubs vs. Brewers game, the best underdog line for the Cubs was (+105), where as the lowest favorite line for the Brewers was (-120). Now, that may seem small, but 60% of the bettor’s money ended up being placed on the Brewers. Even though the Cubs were ranked higher in starting pitching, hitting, defense, and bench prowess. In addition, the Cubs threw overboard their ace, Carlos Zambrano, who after the previous blows, had a lot to prove. For those lucky enough to watch Zambrano play over the past 5 years, it’s well known that he thrives on emotion. However, 60% of investors bet against him.
And the Cubs’ negative media isn’t the only part of this story. Check out the archives on your favorite sports website this season. Choose your option; it will be the same in everything. Compare the last 2 months and count how many pro-Brewers articles there have been compared to anti-Cubs articles. The Brewers are having a fantastic season and it’s a great story. But that is the point of this article. The stories that are written are the ones that shape the opinions of the reader. And when these opinions reach the sportsbook, the obvious happens, the lines change. Your weekend warrior will bet that the Cubs will lose. The ‘informed’ investor of him will bet the Brewers will win. Both opinions formed by the media.
So how did the games turn out? Florida cashed at their underdog, winning 7-4 and the Cubs cashed at their underdog, winning 6-2.
So next time you’re thinking about investing, take a look at the media markets surrounding your options. Which team is getting the most media play? Which team gets the most exposure? Is that exposure justified? What is the public perception of that team? By factoring in media presence, you’ll improve your accuracy by more than 10% overall AND profit from more underserved investing.
