Now that the first BCS standings are out and most of the top teams in the country have played six games, what do we know? EXACTLY what we knew before the season started, NOTHING! Actually, that’s not entirely true, so let me explain.
What we KNOW is that college football has a terribly flawed system. He combines so-called human polls (this year’s new Harris Interactive Poll and the traditional Coaches Poll) with computerized rankings and hopes to tie No. 1 against No. 2 at the end of the year, in his national championship game. When the “system” really does get it right, it’s usually just dumb luck!
Human polls have always been highly subjective and open to much criticism. For decades, both the AP (no longer part of the process) and Coaches’ polls have opened the year with a preseason poll, even though, year after year, the folly of these preseason polls is well documented. . . Just for the last example, keep in mind that the coaches’ poll had Michigan at No. 4 and Oklahoma at No. 5 in their preseason poll. How about that for the EXPERIENCE!
As for the new Harris Poll, does ANYONE besides the BCS guys really think it has any credibility? Don’t lament the loss of the AP poll, though, as the writers had No. 4 Michigan and No. 7 Oklahoma in their preseason poll and, like the Coaches poll, often makes a person scratching their head when trying to understand their weekly rankings. Consider this.
Notre Dame jumped from unranked to No. 10 in the AP poll in the first two weeks of the season, after beating Pittsburgh and Michigan. In case you didn’t know, the Panthers and Wolverines are currently a combined 7-7 in 2005 and were only 1-3 at the time ND ‘jumped’ to No. 10 (Michigan’s only win had been about Northern Illinois and the other about Pitt). the loss went to Ohio U)! Just this week, Texas Tech came in at No. 10 in the AP poll (their highest ranking since 1977) and No. 8 in the latest Coaches poll. Just for the record, Tech opened the year with three straight games against Florida International, Sam Houston State and Indiana State. You CANNOT make these things up!
Let us now turn to computer classifications, which are supposed to be less subjective. Despite Texas Tech’s almost ridiculous schedule, the Red Raiders’ combined computer rankings in the top BCS standings came in at seven. SEVEN! Are you kidding me? By comparison, Michigan State, which has played at Notre Dame, Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State, recorded “zero” in all six BCS computer indexes. Have you ever heard of the phrase “garbage in, garbage out?”
So what does all this mean? There are seven undefeated heading into this weekend’s action and at least one will fall on Saturday as Texas Tech plays Texas. If both USC and UCLA remained undefeated, one would have to lose when the two crosstown rivals meet at the Coliseum on December 3. If Georgia and Alabama remained unscathed, those schools would meet in the SEC title game (also Dec. 3), which meant another undefeated would go down. Virginia Tech, which plays Thursday night at Maryland, is the only undefeated team that doesn’t have another current undefeated team on its schedule.
Are we headed for another season where we finish with three clean sheets? Since only two teams can meet in the BCS title game (Rose Bowl), that tends to be a problem. Can you imagine the screams coming from the SEC if, for the second year in a row, a member of that conference goes undefeated but misses out on the BCS title game (remember Auburn in 2004)?
How about this scenario? USC wins, as does Texas, Virginia Tech, and Alabama or Georgia. USC is still No. 1 to be sure, but can Texas maintain its No. 2 spot in the BCS with only one ranked opponent on its schedule (Texas Tech this week)?
Va Tech still has Boston College, Miami-Fla and Florida State left (the ACC title game?), a schedule sure to boost the team’s computer rankings, if not its ranking in the Harris or Coaches poll. As for the two SEC teams to remain undefeated, Alabama would have to get past Tennessee, LSU and Auburn before the SEC title showdown, while Georgia would have to beat Florida, Auburn and Georgia Tech. Will Tech and Alabama or Georgia (Alabama seems like a more likely bet) overtake Texas by beating the Longhorns in the computer rankings?
It doesn’t seem too far-fetched and not many would feel (especially in the Pac-10) that it would be “just desserts” if Texas were denied a second straight trip to the Rose Bowl, this time for a national title showdown with USC, after who edged out Cal for his Rose Bowl bid in last year’s BCS final standings.
However, if USC and Texas win, I can’t imagine MOST people wouldn’t want to see a USC-Texas matchup, with Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush vs. Vince Young. There are seven weekends of college football left and a lot can still happen, but wouldn’t it be nice if there was some sort of playoff structure to prevent the possibility of any number of “nightmare” scenarios?
Next week I’ll check out how the 23 ‘new’ college football head coaches have fared in 2005.
