…It’s just that it’s unpredictable.

Making predictions about anything is tricky business. It is often fraught with problems and is compounded by two factors: too many variables and too many people.

Making predictions in the world of technology is as complicated as possible. You see a trend, a fad, or a new craze, you jump on it, you extrapolate it, and then you go completely wrong.

As an example, in the early 20th century, passenger hot air balloon rides, pioneered by the likes of Count Ferdinand von Zeppelin, were predicted to become commoditized and become the preeminent means of public transportation. In fact, it would be so popular that by the 1980s people would have their own personal air balloon as their primary method of transportation.

Obviously, this look at the future did not take into account the plane, which ended with that pearl of clairvoyance.

The main problem with looking ahead is that people do it in such painfully straight lines, as the example above demonstrates. The telephone is another useful example; Who could have predicted mobile phones at a time when Alexander Graham Bell was playing with the technological equivalent of paper cups and wet rope?

Nobody could have done it. Also, how could anyone have predicted that these mobile phones would one day have built-in cameras? Or that you could send written messages about them? You only have to go back 10 years, and such ideas would be ridiculed as nonsense.

The future is a complicated thing, and in the wonderful world of information technology, the driving force behind much of the confusion is convergence.

Now there’s a buzzword if I’ve ever heard one. And this becomes the next big problem with predicting future trends in technology: let’s get two really cool gadgets and combine them; people will love it!

Eh no! What drives desire is anyone’s guess. It is utility that drives the need: two very different parts of the brain are being exercised, one more than the other here!

If something serves no practical purpose, then it is neither use nor ornament.

This predicting the future thing is even harder these days, but in a way, even the most outlandish theory could have its day. Things are changing so fast that new technologies are springing up literally overnight. And since people’s needs are also changing, evolving and emerging, who knows?

Going even further back, the desire, the need, call it what you want, has a common source. The very engine of change is people, society, lifestyle and the requirement to manage, redirect and/or, if necessary, delegate all this data and information.

The Apple Newton was way ahead of its time. A bunch of smart guys and gals sat down in a room and made a remarkable prediction about how people would “consume” data and information, and they were right, the only problem is they were 10 years ahead of the curve!

Now, people are on the move. People work on the go, maintain long-distance relationships, work with colleagues in different time zones, and manage bank accounts in a cafe over a cup of chai.

The only certainty is the same one that has been pontificated since time immemorial: things change. Things often come together in intriguing, mysterious, and eminently useful ways.

So here’s my prediction: things will never be small enough, big enough, fast enough, cool enough, or cheap enough! I’m wrong?