Professional tipsters don’t just review power ratings, stats, and matchups. There are many factors to examine, individually and as a group, when trying to identify advantages versus spread. Let’s talk about sandwiches. No, not ham on rye or P&J, but basketball sandwiches.
This is when a team has several tough games on a schedule, and then, out of the blue, plays a bad team or one that’s out of the conference. This is where looking carefully at the schedule comes in handy. Varsity basketball teams have been in conference play this month. However, sometimes a team will have a non-conference game smack in the middle of their schedule. There are all kinds of reasons for this. Sometimes games are rescheduled, other times a team has an open date and needs to book a game, sometimes a year in advance, while other times teams have local rivalry games that need to take place, even if it’s not. in conference.
This week I had a big play at Marshall when they played state rival West Virginia. This was a sandwich place for the Mountaineers. They had already started playing in the Big East with back-to-back games against South Florida, No. 3 Villanova, Georgetown, Marquette and Providence. In fact, the Mountaineers had won all of those games and were ranked No. 9 in the country.
Then last Saturday they walked out of the conference and faced UCLA. In the path. That is something that captures the idea of a professional handicap. Here’s a team from the East Coast that sticks to its conference schedule and suddenly has to fly across the country to play a non-conference game. First of all, it’s a long road trip. Second, while it’s a non-conference tilt, it wasn’t a game West Virginia would take lightly. At the time, UCLA was ranked 16th in the nation, a good challenge for the Mountaineers. Plus, it was at Pauley Pavilion, playing under all those national championship banners on a court that featured so many great moments in college basketball history. It was a game for the Mountaineers and they won, 60-56.
What caught my attention the most was the NEXT game. After flying from one side of the country to the other, West Virginia had to play a real game of sandwich, this time against relative Marshall’s cupcake. Marshall’s tilt was another non-conference game, just before West Virginia jumps back into the Big East playing in succession St. John’s, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, No. 10 Pittsburgh and Georgetown. What interest would West Virginia have in playing 7-9 Marshall, a team on a 3-game losing streak?
There was even recent history to look at, too. A year ago in January, Marshall was a +13½ dog against West Virginia and not only covered but WON the game, 59-55. Marshall doesn’t have the horses to race the mighty West Virginia, so he slowed down. Plus, that was Marshall’s biggest game of the year, in a sense. Remember Marshall went 6-22 last season! In short, the Thundering Herd was very keen to do their best, while West Virginia was much less interested. A year ago, when he faced Marshall, West Virginia had BC, Notre Dame, Syracuse and UConn on deck. And they played like they had little focus on Marshall.
Forget the law of averages, folks. The sandwich place had Marshall play as a +16 dog, so my clients and I were all over the place. I liked it even more when West Virginia center Kevin Pittsnogle secured the win! Marshall won the game 58-52 over ninth-ranked West Virginia. Note that after the game, a Marshall player said, “After a guarantee like that, it’s good we’re showing up.” Yes, players and coaches are well aware of “guarantees” like that, which is why coaches in all sports often tell their players to shut up rather than give verbal fodder to the opponent. Just as coaches are sensitive to verbal fodder, good handicappers are aware of sandwiches.
